Crispus : I wonder if anyone has taken the time, or had access to the data, to be able to plot Chicagoland versus downstate like the one plot you posted that had the US excluding NJ & NY. I say that because lifting restrictions will contribute to an uptick, one that will likely be somewhat masked by including Chicagoland in statewide stats since they lead rather than lag the rest of the state in the outbreak.
@mypeez : Agreed, I'd like to see a breakdown like that too. I actually do think, in hindsight, that we could have shut down Chicagoland and left downstate open longer than we did, but without testing being in place from the federal govt, we had no way to know that. I also suspect that Chicagoland will level off while it eventually takes off here...but whether that will happen in the next month, or not until December, who knows.
Bottom line is we need lots of testing in place, after which we can make more nuanced decisions about how to open things up and shut things down. Without the metrics, you have to assume worst case scenarios to protect people.