@shifty :
Buying Bucyrus at an enormous premium at a time when it was widely believed/known that mining was on the verge of a serious downturn, if not total freefall. The continued huge goodwill claim is going to crash down eventually, along with the dividend and the share price.
Actually, the mining equipment business was only several months into its boom when the deal was made public in November 2010. Final approval in July 2011 cleared the way. Not until late 2011 did prices for mined metals begin to level off,
one year after the acquisition was announced. Caterpillar saw an opportunity to expand its line of mining equipment. At the time, just about everybody thought this was a good deal.
Siwei disaster. "Win in China". Somehow due diligence didn't extend to checking whether several hundred millions of dollars of inventory existed. It didn't, whoops. Not to mention the serious accounting red flags that were flat out ignored.
Also China; somehow not recognizing that roughly 30% of the record revenue at the high was tied to an unsustainable Chinese stimulus, which of course ended abruptly.
Oberhelman took the blame for that, and the board kept him on.
Spending a ton of cash buying assets from Navistar to re-enter the on-highway truck business. One of the few good decisions was to pull out of the deal before they lost their ***.
A strange deal since Cat had just exited the on-highway truck engine business. But there is risk in new ventures, and this one proved a failed one. It happens.
There are plenty, plenty more that aren't public knowledge. Cat is hemorrhaging good long-term experienced employees along with the massive layoffs. Artificially propping up the stock price with accounting trickery and stock buyback isn't going to last forever. I'm not sure what the future holds for Cat, but it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Cat's biggest mistake was thinking record demand for its products in 2011-2012 was "normal," and significantly increased capacity to avoid losing orders, as it feared happened in the boom prior to the 2008 financial crisis. There is only so much demand for goods and services in a specific period of time. Government stimulus accelerates it, but doesn't increase it, thus economies experience a "sugar high" then a "sugar low." The strengthening US Dollar doesn't help matters either. Good or bad, Oberhelman will remain CEO until his mandatory retirement in 2018.